Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

176.74 – 90.77

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

182 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 40.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 250.2 ±13.9

3184Blaze Robotics

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 77.79Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1723The FBI - FIRST Bots of Independence

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 55.34Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7064Voltron Robotics

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 43.61Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.7 ±13.3

4455The Burger Bots

Season APEX 53.8Event APEX 25.07Rank 30Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1825The Cyborgs

Season APEX 94.4Event APEX 61.49Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5268The BioMech Falcons

Season APEX 119.5Event APEX 4.21Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3184, 1723, 7064

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.7 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3184, 1723, 7064

Auto

32.5 19%

Teleop

89.6 51%

Endgame

52.0 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4455, 1825, 5268

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4455, 1825, 5268

Auto

21.2 24%

Teleop

36.3 41%

Endgame

32.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.24 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score176.7pts

Blue projected score90.8pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 86
Score range: 57–211
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 349 vs event baseline 189.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

250.2Season APEX267.7

32.5Auto21.2

89.6Teleop36.3

52Endgame32.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	52
teleop	91	76
endgame	74	34
foul	0	5
total	182	167

Result

Final score

182 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 40.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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