Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

96.75 – 83.65

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

69 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 25.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239.3 ±17

2560RoboDog

Provisional

Season APEX 82Event APEX 76.07Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9031Wildbots

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX -4.56Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1997STAGROBOTICS

Season APEX 80.7Event APEX 25.24Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281 ±13.5

1806S.W.A.T.

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 24.99Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1827THE HIVE

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX -9.72Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5968Little Apple Cyborgs

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 68.38Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2560, 9031, 1997

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2560, 9031, 1997

Auto

21.4 22%

Teleop

39.7 41%

Endgame

36.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1806, 1827, 5968

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1806, 1827, 5968

Auto

4.4 5%

Teleop

63.7 74%

Endgame

17.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score96.7pts

Blue projected score83.6pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.1
Score range: 48–133
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 197.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239.3Season APEX281

21.4Auto4.4

39.7Teleop63.7

36.8Endgame17.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	31
teleop	30	35
endgame	8	41
foul	0	0
total	69	107

Result

Final score

69 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 25.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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