Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

203.69 – 110.66

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

371 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 153.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 450 ±13.7

9428The Cashew Chickens @ Springfield Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 94.66Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 98.8Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8770FireBolts

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 10.23Rank 35Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 348.1 ±16.5

5809The Jesubots 5809

Season APEX 221.6Event APEX 38.45Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

681710 Factorial

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 60.74Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2001HERMES

Provisional

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 11.47Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9428, 4522, 8770

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9428, 4522, 8770

Auto

42.4 21%

Teleop

108.4 53%

Endgame

52.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5809, 6817, 2001

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5809, 6817, 2001

Auto

15.7 15%

Teleop

56.6 55%

Endgame

30.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.3 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score203.7pts

Blue projected score110.7pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 93
Score range: 77–238
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 622 vs event baseline 187.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

450Season APEX348.1

42.4Auto15.7

108.4Teleop56.6

52.1Endgame30.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	50
teleop	173	132
endgame	120	69
foul	0	0
total	371	251

Result

Final score

371 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 153.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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