Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

121.47 – 145.04

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

236 – 153

Prediction missed · off by 61.2 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.7 ±12.2

1802Team Stealth

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 14.51Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 72.86Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1982Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 34.1Rank 38Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.3 ±12.2

11195VOLT Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 57.61Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2333Sapulpa Robotics Team

Season APEX 143Event APEX 72.86Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1785Blue Springs Robocats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 14.57Rank 37Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1802, 2040, 1982

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1802, 2040, 1982

Auto

25.8 22%

Teleop

65.0 54%

Endgame

28.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11195, 2333, 1785

/ 100 compat

Projected

145 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 11195, 2333, 1785

Auto

18.2 13%

Teleop

95.6 67%

Endgame

29.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score121.5pts

Blue projected score145pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.6
Score range: 87–179
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 389 vs event baseline 187.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.7Season APEX266.3

25.8Auto18.2

65Teleop95.6

28.7Endgame29.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	16
teleop	111	79
endgame	64	53
foul	5	5
total	236	153

Result

Final score

236 – 153

Prediction missed · off by 61.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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