Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

173.85 – 148.48

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

372 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 111.3 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 490.8 ±12.4

3184Blaze Robotics

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 19.24Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1987Broncobots

A+

Season APEX 323.7Event APEX 118.32Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8112Cyclotrons

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 36.29Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 300.9 ±11.6

5801CTC Inspire

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 30.1Rank 23Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5098STING - R

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 99.14Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4329Lutheran Roboteers

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 19.24Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3184, 1987, 8112

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.9 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3184, 1987, 8112

Auto

37.2 21%

Teleop

89.5 51%

Endgame

47.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5801, 5098, 4329

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5801, 5098, 4329

Auto

29.2 20%

Teleop

77.5 52%

Endgame

41.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score173.9pts

Blue projected score148.5pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.4
Score range: 115–207
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 496 vs event baseline 181.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

490.8Season APEX300.9

37.2Auto29.2

89.5Teleop77.5

47.2Endgame41.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	83	39
teleop	195	55
endgame	94	30
foul	0	0
total	372	124

Result

Final score

372 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 111.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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