Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

300.58 – 143.75

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

329 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 616.7 ±11.9

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 126.88Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7858Warriors

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 67.38Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 106.32Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 489.6 ±11.7

2977Sir LancerBots

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 23.62Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 55.67Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3061Huskie Robotics

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 64.46Rank 9Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3928, 7858, 695

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.6 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3928, 7858, 695

Auto

51.9 18%

Teleop

171.2 58%

Endgame

72.6 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2977, 2220, 3061

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.8 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2977, 2220, 3061

Auto

33.0 24%

Teleop

73.1 53%

Endgame

32.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score300.6pts

Blue projected score143.8pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 156.8
Score range: 115–330
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 500 vs event baseline 162.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

616.7Season APEX489.6

51.9Auto33

171.2Teleop73.1

72.6Endgame32.8

41Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	17
teleop	160	82
endgame	106	62
foul	5	10
total	329	171

Result

Final score

329 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 pts

Match videos

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