Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

299.9 – 270.67

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

408 – 350

Prediction correct · off by 93.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 600.5 ±11.7

525Swartdogs

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 13.7Rank 39Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 134.03Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4646Wildcard Robotics

Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 152.17Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 560.6 ±11.2

3206Royal T-Wrecks

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 26.51Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 120.64Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 123.52Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 525, 111, 4646

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 525, 111, 4646

Auto

62.4 21%

Teleop

186.0 62%

Endgame

51.4 17%

Strengths

· 4646 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3206, 4065, 4174

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3206, 4065, 4174

Auto

33.5 13%

Teleop

156.6 59%

Endgame

75.8 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score299.9pts

Blue projected score270.7pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.2
Score range: 242–329
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 758 vs event baseline 159.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

600.5Season APEX560.6

62.4Auto33.5

186Teleop156.6

51.4Endgame75.8

40Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	48
teleop	235	168
endgame	84	89
foul	0	45
total	408	350

Result

Final score

408 – 350

Prediction correct · off by 93.7 pts

Match videos

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