Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

292.3 – 316.52

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

285 – 233

Prediction missed · off by 45.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 613.4 ±11

112Plus One

Season APEX 90.2Event APEX 38.04Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5847Ironclad

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 124.24Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 130.02Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 616.7 ±11.9

7858Warriors

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 73.22Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 111.91Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 131.39Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 112, 5847, 4143

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 112, 5847, 4143

Auto

60.3 21%

Teleop

145.6 51%

Endgame

77.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7858, 695, 3928

/ 100 compat

Projected

316.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7858, 695, 3928

Auto

50.3 16%

Teleop

183.4 59%

Endgame

77.3 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score292.3pts

Blue projected score316.5pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.2
Score range: 263–346
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 518 vs event baseline 158.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

613.4Season APEX616.7

60.3Auto50.3

145.6Teleop183.4

77.3Endgame77.3

47Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	61
teleop	151	115
endgame	85	52
foul	5	5
total	285	233

Result

Final score

285 – 233

Prediction missed · off by 45.4 pts

Match videos

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