Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

143.69 – 126.04

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 20.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 489.6 ±11.7

2977Sir LancerBots

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 23.86Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 55.81Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3061Huskie Robotics

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 64.02Rank 9Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 293.7 ±14.5

2987Rogue Robotics

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 38.62Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5914Robotic Warriors

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 18.29Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4663Cyber Tigers

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 69.13Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2977, 2220, 3061

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2977, 2220, 3061

Auto

30.6 22%

Teleop

72.6 53%

Endgame

34.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2987, 5914, 4663

/ 100 compat

Projected

126 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2987, 5914, 4663

Auto

30.2 25%

Teleop

54.2 45%

Endgame

36.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score143.7pts

Blue projected score126pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.6
Score range: 97–173
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 229 vs event baseline 159.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

489.6Season APEX293.7

30.6Auto30.2

72.6Teleop54.2

34.4Endgame36.7

73Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	32
teleop	70	37
endgame	23	24
foul	0	0
total	136	93

Result

Final score

136 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 20.4 pts

Match videos

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