Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

99.74 – 212.77

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 50.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 441 ±13.3

967Iron Lions

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 47.81Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2508Armada

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 29.41Rank 11Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 22.52Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 434.6 ±12.2

9082No Limit

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 47.56Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6419Kernel Chaos

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 99.99Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2530Inconceivable

Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 65.22Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 967, 2508, 167

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 967, 2508, 167

Auto

16.3 17%

Teleop

47.8 50%

Endgame

30.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9082, 6419, 2530

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.8 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9082, 6419, 2530

Auto

23.5 11%

Teleop

127.3 60%

Endgame

59.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score99.7pts

Blue projected score212.8pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -113
Score range: 71–242
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 159.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

441Season APEX434.6

16.3Auto23.5

47.8Teleop127.3

30.8Endgame59.9

55Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	2	27
teleop	71	69
endgame	17	11
foul	0	15
total	90	122

Result

Final score

90 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 50.3 pts

Match videos

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