Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

278.83 – 127.98

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

226 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 560.6 ±11.2

3206Royal T-Wrecks

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 28.74Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 124.43Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 125.66Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 293.7 ±14.5

2987Rogue Robotics

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 39.94Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5914Robotic Warriors

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 18.96Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4663Cyber Tigers

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 69.08Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3206, 4065, 4174

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.8 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3206, 4065, 4174

Auto

34.5 12%

Teleop

161.8 58%

Endgame

80.5 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2987, 5914, 4663

/ 100 compat

Projected

128 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2987, 5914, 4663

Auto

28.8 23%

Teleop

57.1 47%

Endgame

36.8 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.4 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score278.8pts

Blue projected score128pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 150.8
Score range: 99–308
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 337 vs event baseline 159.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

560.6Season APEX293.7

34.5Auto28.8

161.8Teleop57.1

80.5Endgame36.8

49Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	35
teleop	128	39
endgame	52	32
foul	15	5
total	226	111

Result

Final score

226 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 pts

Match videos

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