Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
303.32 – 153.35
87%13%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
273 – 106
Prediction correct · off by 38.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 600.5 ±11.7
Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 14.75Rank 39Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 153.65Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 241Event APEX 134.92Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 489.6 ±11.7
Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 27.89Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 58.32Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 67.14Rank 9Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 525, 4646, 111
81
/ 100 compatProjected
303.3 pts
~2.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 525, 4646, 111
Auto
62.1 20%
Teleop
185.5 61%
Endgame
55.4 18%
Strengths
- · 4646 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2977, 2220, 3061
66
/ 100 compatProjected
153.4 pts
~0.8 RP (regional)
Teams: 2977, 2220, 3061
Auto
34.4 23%
Teleop
74.0 50%
Endgame
40.0 27%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.83
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score303.3pts
Blue projected score153.4pts
Red win probability87%
Event bonus sample182alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 57%, blue 52%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 150
- Score range
- 124–332
- Upset likelihood
- 13%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
600.5Season APEX489.6
62.1Auto34.4
185.5Teleop74
55.4Endgame40
56Consistency68
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 64 | 17 |
| teleop | 178 | 66 |
| endgame | 31 | 13 |
| foul | 0 | 10 |
| total | 273 | 106 |
Result
Final score
273 – 106
Prediction correct · off by 38.8 pts
Match videos
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