Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

312.33 – 313.43

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

248 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 35.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 600.5 ±11.7

525Swartdogs

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 18.03Rank 39Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 137.92Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4646Wildcard Robotics

Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 156.38Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 616.7 ±11.9

7858Warriors

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 71.78Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 110.1Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 131.55Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 525, 111, 4646

/ 100 compat

Projected

312.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 525, 111, 4646

Auto

68.3 22%

Teleop

187.9 61%

Endgame

53.3 17%

Strengths

· 4646 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7858, 695, 3928

/ 100 compat

Projected

313.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7858, 695, 3928

Auto

52.2 17%

Teleop

174.3 57%

Endgame

81.4 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score312.3pts

Blue projected score313.4pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.1
Score range: 282–343
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 554 vs event baseline 167.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

600.5Season APEX616.7

68.3Auto52.2

187.9Teleop174.3

53.3Endgame81.4

20Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	58
teleop	148	177
endgame	58	61
foul	5	10
total	248	306

Result

Final score

248 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 35.9 pts

Match videos

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