Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

285.1 – 305.01

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

277 – 370

Prediction correct · off by 36.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 560.6 ±11.2

3206Royal T-Wrecks

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 31.67Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 125.57Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 127.86Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 616.7 ±11.9

7858Warriors

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 68.94Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 107.43Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 128.64Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3206, 4065, 4174

/ 100 compat

Projected

285.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3206, 4065, 4174

Auto

38.3 14%

Teleop

158.1 58%

Endgame

78.3 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7858, 695, 3928

/ 100 compat

Projected

305 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7858, 695, 3928

Auto

52.6 18%

Teleop

170.0 57%

Endgame

77.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score285.1pts

Blue projected score305pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.9
Score range: 255–335
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 647 vs event baseline 165.5.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

560.6Season APEX616.7

38.3Auto52.6

158.1Teleop170

78.3Endgame77.6

39Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	50
teleop	148	203
endgame	73	107
foul	5	10
total	277	370

Result

Final score

277 – 370

Prediction correct · off by 36.5 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.