Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

282.61 – 195.56

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

297 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 44 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 560.6 ±11.2

3206Royal T-Wrecks

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 30.22Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 124.78Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 127.61Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 434.6 ±12.2

9082No Limit

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 43.38Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6419Kernel Chaos

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 93.81Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2530Inconceivable

Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 58.37Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3206, 4065, 4174

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.6 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3206, 4065, 4174

Auto

35.7 13%

Teleop

158.2 58%

Endgame

77.3 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9082, 6419, 2530

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9082, 6419, 2530

Auto

23.7 12%

Teleop

116.8 61%

Endgame

50.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score282.6pts

Blue projected score195.6pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.1
Score range: 167–312
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 419 vs event baseline 163.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

560.6Season APEX434.6

35.7Auto23.7

158.2Teleop116.8

77.3Endgame50.7

36Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	36
teleop	155	61
endgame	83	15
foul	5	10
total	297	122

Result

Final score

297 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 44 pts

Match videos

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