Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.81 – 146.37

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

157 – 312

Prediction correct · off by 109.9 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 356.7 ±12.8

4663Cyber Tigers

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 43.43Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

525Swartdogs

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 16.15Rank 39Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2530Inconceivable

Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 43.23Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 492.8 ±15.6

3090Chaotic Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 53.14Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 50Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6419Kernel Chaos

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 43.23Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4663, 525, 2530

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4663, 525, 2530

Auto

21.6 21%

Teleop

51.3 51%

Endgame

27.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3090, 4143, 6419

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3090, 4143, 6419

Auto

33.5 24%

Teleop

77.0 55%

Endgame

29.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score102.8pts

Blue projected score146.4pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.6
Score range: 81–168
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 469 vs event baseline 122.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

356.7Season APEX492.8

21.6Auto33.5

51.3Teleop77

27.7Endgame29.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	50
teleop	85	174
endgame	47	83
foul	0	5
total	157	312

Result

Final score

157 – 312

Prediction correct · off by 109.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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