Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

87.14 – 70.67

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

69 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 27.9 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 376.5 ±14.1

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 13.71Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7531Servos Strike Back

Season APEX 75.8Event APEX 48.29Rank 19Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6420Fire Island Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 25.14Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.8 ±14.5

2531RoboHawks

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 6.67Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5576Team Terminator

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 25.14Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

112Plus One

Season APEX 90.2Event APEX 38.86Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3284, 7531, 6420

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3284, 7531, 6420

Auto

11.2 13%

Teleop

49.7 59%

Endgame

23.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2531, 5576, 112

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2531, 5576, 112

Auto

18.3 27%

Teleop

37.7 56%

Endgame

11.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score87.1pts

Blue projected score70.7pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.5
Score range: 47–111
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 102 vs event baseline 132.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

376.5Season APEX223.8

11.2Auto18.3

49.7Teleop37.7

23.4Endgame11.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	12
teleop	37	9
endgame	14	12
foul	0	0
total	69	33

Result

Final score

69 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 27.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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