Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

113.88 – 89.83

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

53 – 81

Prediction missed · off by 34.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284.2 ±15.6

5822WolfByte

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 37.97Rank 34Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5339Hurricanes

Provisional

Season APEX 33.7Event APEX 12.99Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 62.92Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289 ±15

4859The CyBears

Season APEX 87.4Event APEX 39.26Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2531RoboHawks

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 10.21Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2987Rogue Robotics

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 40.36Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5822, 5339, 2220

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.9 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5822, 5339, 2220

Auto

17.1 17%

Teleop

52.1 50%

Endgame

34.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4859, 2531, 2987

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4859, 2531, 2987

Auto

26.3 30%

Teleop

43.6 50%

Endgame

16.5 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score113.9pts

Blue projected score89.8pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24
Score range: 62–142
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 134 vs event baseline 156.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284.2Season APEX289

17.1Auto26.3

52.1Teleop43.6

34.3Endgame16.5

77Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	0
teleop	33	53
endgame	1	28
foul	5	0
total	53	81

Result

Final score

53 – 81

Prediction missed · off by 34.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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