Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

125.11 – 202.12

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

104 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 32.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 364.1 ±15.6

3061Huskie Robotics

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 68.61Rank 9Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2977Sir LancerBots

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 29.53Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

11246Tiger Byte

Provisional

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 26.97Rank 38Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 545.3 ±12.4

6420Fire Island Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 0.44Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2530Inconceivable

Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 70.46Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 131.22Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3061, 2977, 11246

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3061, 2977, 11246

Auto

34.8 27%

Teleop

56.3 44%

Endgame

35.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6420, 2530, 4143

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6420, 2530, 4143

Auto

28.1 14%

Teleop

126.7 64%

Endgame

42.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.1 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score125.1pts

Blue projected score202.1pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77
Score range: 97–230
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 263 vs event baseline 157.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

364.1Season APEX545.3

34.8Auto28.1

56.3Teleop126.7

35.5Endgame42.5

61Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	28
teleop	29	98
endgame	24	8
foul	5	25
total	104	159

Result

Final score

104 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 32.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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