Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

71.5 – 25.48

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

50 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 17.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.9 ±16.6

112Plus One

Season APEX 90.2Event APEX 35.9Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3090Chaotic Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 22.41Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

5541Shakopee Sabers

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 13.19Rank 30Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.3 ±14.5

2549Millerbots

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 21.28Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2290FLYT

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 7.57Rank 36Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5576Team Terminator

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX -3.37Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 112, 3090, 5541

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 112, 3090, 5541

Auto

23.7 33%

Teleop

31.1 43%

Endgame

17.1 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2549, 2290, 5576

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2549, 2290, 5576

Auto

7.0 33%

Teleop

14.0 66%

Endgame

0.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score71.5pts

Blue projected score25.5pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46
Score range: -4–101
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 89 vs event baseline 158.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.9Season APEX258.3

23.7Auto7

31.1Teleop14

17.1Endgame0.1

32Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	22
teleop	20	5
endgame	18	7
foul	0	5
total	50	39

Result

Final score

50 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 17.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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