Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82.32 – 85.41

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

173 – 110

Prediction missed · off by 57.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 407.9 ±14.5

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 14.82Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7858Warriors

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 57.93Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

5914Robotic Warriors

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 9.57Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 287.8 ±15

3055Furious George

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 22.34Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

967Iron Lions

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 47.4Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2667Knights of the Valley

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 15.67Rank 33Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 167, 7858, 5914

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 167, 7858, 5914

Auto

8.4 11%

Teleop

41.1 54%

Endgame

26.5 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3055, 967, 2667

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3055, 967, 2667

Auto

15.3 19%

Teleop

40.7 51%

Endgame

23.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score82.3pts

Blue projected score85.4pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.1
Score range: 53–114
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 158.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

407.9Season APEX287.8

8.4Auto15.3

41.1Teleop40.7

26.5Endgame23.1

81Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	10
teleop	81	71
endgame	29	29
foul	50	0
total	173	110

Result

Final score

173 – 110

Prediction missed · off by 57.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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