Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

194.25 – 153.59

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

247 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 388.4 ±13.5

7531Servos Strike Back

Season APEX 75.8Event APEX 40.09Rank 19Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2508Armada

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 25.79Rank 11Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 128.37Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.5 ±14.5

3206Royal T-Wrecks

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 26.88Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7850Bio-Bots

Season APEX 83.8Event APEX 24.98Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6419Kernel Chaos

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 101.73Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7531, 2508, 111

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7531, 2508, 111

Auto

38.3 20%

Teleop

100.5 53%

Endgame

49.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3206, 7850, 6419

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3206, 7850, 6419

Auto

21.9 15%

Teleop

89.4 60%

Endgame

36.8 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score194.3pts

Blue projected score153.6pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.7
Score range: 126–222
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 158.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

388.4Season APEX312.5

38.3Auto21.9

100.5Teleop89.4

49.6Endgame36.8

30Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	25
teleop	148	95
endgame	42	42
foul	0	0
total	247	162

Result

Final score

247 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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