Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115.81 – 79.05

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

81 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 229.2 ±17.5

3055Furious George

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 25.37Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3090Chaotic Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 27.92Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7858Warriors

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 62.52Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.2 ±17

11246Tiger Byte

Provisional

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 31.32Rank 38Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2987Rogue Robotics

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 44.55Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6420Fire Island Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 3.18Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3055, 3090, 7858

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3055, 3090, 7858

Auto

21.3 19%

Teleop

55.9 49%

Endgame

37.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11246, 2987, 6420

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11246, 2987, 6420

Auto

23.5 30%

Teleop

40.1 50%

Endgame

16.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score115.8pts

Blue projected score79.1pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.8
Score range: 51–144
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 133 vs event baseline 157.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

229.2Season APEX245.2

21.3Auto23.5

55.9Teleop40.1

37Endgame16

26Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	29
teleop	28	20
endgame	35	3
foul	5	0
total	81	52

Result

Final score

81 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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