Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.71 – 87.41

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 35.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.9 ±14.1

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 63.65Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5541Shakopee Sabers

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 12Rank 30Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2531RoboHawks

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 9.06Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 311.3 ±13.9

967Iron Lions

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 41.76Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2508Armada

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 21.2Rank 11Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2977Sir LancerBots

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 24.45Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2220, 5541, 2531

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2220, 5541, 2531

Auto

11.8 15%

Teleop

49.6 62%

Endgame

18.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 967, 2508, 2977

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 967, 2508, 2977

Auto

10.4 13%

Teleop

28.9 35%

Endgame

43.9 53%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score84.7pts

Blue projected score87.4pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.7
Score range: 57–115
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 157.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.9Season APEX311.3

11.8Auto10.4

49.6Teleop28.9

18.2Endgame43.9

60Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	22
teleop	47	83
endgame	38	37
foul	0	5
total	97	147

Result

Final score

97 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 35.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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