Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

172.29 – 267.08

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

250 – 329

Prediction correct · off by 69.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 470.1 ±11.7

9082No Limit

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 38.95Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 101.14Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5822WolfByte

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 32.2Rank 34Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 633.9 ±11.7

5847Ironclad

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 120.73Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2549Millerbots

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 18.28Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 128.07Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9082, 695, 5822

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9082, 695, 5822

Auto

29.0 17%

Teleop

94.9 55%

Endgame

49.2 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5847, 2549, 4143

/ 100 compat

Projected

267.1 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5847, 2549, 4143

Auto

49.1 19%

Teleop

139.4 54%

Endgame

70.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.06 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score172.3pts

Blue projected score267.1pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -94.8
Score range: 144–295
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 579 vs event baseline 156.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

470.1Season APEX633.9

29Auto49.1

94.9Teleop139.4

49.2Endgame70.3

63Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	55
teleop	127	184
endgame	86	90
foul	5	0
total	250	329

Result

Final score

250 – 329

Prediction correct · off by 69.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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