Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.34 – 113.3

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

127 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.2 ±14.5

4859The CyBears

Season APEX 87.4Event APEX 38.97Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

525Swartdogs

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 10.23Rank 39Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3206Royal T-Wrecks

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 21.14Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 448.6 ±13.3

2358Bearbotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 27.93Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 16.23Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4663Cyber Tigers

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 69.14Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4859, 525, 3206

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4859, 525, 3206

Auto

26.3 37%

Teleop

35.5 50%

Endgame

8.5 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2358, 167, 4663

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2358, 167, 4663

Auto

28.6 25%

Teleop

61.2 53%

Endgame

24.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score70.3pts

Blue projected score113.3pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43
Score range: 42–141
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 261 vs event baseline 157.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.2Season APEX448.6

26.3Auto28.6

35.5Teleop61.2

8.5Endgame24.7

29Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	23
teleop	67	76
endgame	27	35
foul	0	0
total	127	134

Result

Final score

127 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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