Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

255.24 – 226.89

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

350 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 79.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 583.7 ±11.9

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 117.83Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5576Team Terminator

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX -10.63Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4646Wildcard Robotics

Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 148.04Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 480.2 ±13.5

5914Robotic Warriors

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 8.15Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

6419Kernel Chaos

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 95.74Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 123Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4065, 5576, 4646

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.2 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4065, 5576, 4646

Auto

33.7 14%

Teleop

147.2 60%

Endgame

65.8 27%

Strengths

· 4646 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5914, 6419, 111

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5914, 6419, 111

Auto

45.5 21%

Teleop

122.6 57%

Endgame

45.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score255.2pts

Blue projected score226.9pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.4
Score range: 199–283
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 642 vs event baseline 154.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

583.7Season APEX480.2

33.7Auto45.5

147.2Teleop122.6

65.8Endgame45.5

96Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	27
teleop	229	183
endgame	72	82
foul	10	0
total	350	292

Result

Final score

350 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 79.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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