Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

218.49 – 220.44

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

188 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 19 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 461.2 ±12.2

112Plus One

Season APEX 90.2Event APEX 41.09Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2987Rogue Robotics

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 48.89Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 128.51Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 483.7 ±11.7

2530Inconceivable

Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 76.02Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 121.29Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2508Armada

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 23.13Rank 11Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 112, 2987, 4174

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 112, 2987, 4174

Auto

39.1 18%

Teleop

119.0 54%

Endgame

61.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2530, 3928, 2508

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2530, 3928, 2508

Auto

37.3 17%

Teleop

126.8 58%

Endgame

54.5 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score218.5pts

Blue projected score220.4pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.9
Score range: 190–248
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 401 vs event baseline 153.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

461.2Season APEX483.7

39.1Auto37.3

119Teleop126.8

61.8Endgame54.5

76Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	16
teleop	80	116
endgame	54	81
foul	0	0
total	188	213

Result

Final score

188 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 19 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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