Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

261.56 – 68.31

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

158 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 55.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 648.6 ±11.2

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 114.16Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5847Ironclad

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 131.9Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2290FLYT

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 15.5Rank 36Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254 ±17

2977Sir LancerBots

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 26.14Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2531RoboHawks

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 10.26Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3090Chaotic Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 31.91Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 695, 5847, 2290

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.6 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 695, 5847, 2290

Auto

54.2 21%

Teleop

133.3 52%

Endgame

68.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2977, 2531, 3090

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.3 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2977, 2531, 3090

Auto

4.1 6%

Teleop

34.0 49%

Endgame

31.5 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.49 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score261.6pts

Blue projected score68.3pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 193.3
Score range: 40–290
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 233 vs event baseline 154.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

648.6Season APEX254

54.2Auto4.1

133.3Teleop34

68.6Endgame31.5

68Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	6
teleop	101	49
endgame	14	15
foul	10	5
total	158	75

Result

Final score

158 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 55.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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