Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

38.45 – 90.3

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 272.9 ±15

2549Millerbots

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 17.99Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6420Fire Island Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 5.83Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2667Knights of the Valley

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 14.63Rank 33Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243.3 ±17

5339Hurricanes

Provisional

Season APEX 33.7Event APEX 9.6Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

967Iron Lions

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 43.09Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4859The CyBears

Season APEX 87.4Event APEX 37.61Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2549, 6420, 2667

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.5 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2549, 6420, 2667

Auto

7.8 19%

Teleop

30.7 75%

Endgame

2.2 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5339, 967, 4859

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5339, 967, 4859

Auto

24.3 29%

Teleop

41.8 50%

Endgame

17.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score38.5pts

Blue projected score90.3pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.8
Score range: 10–118
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 153 vs event baseline 155.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

272.9Season APEX243.3

7.8Auto24.3

30.7Teleop41.8

2.2Endgame17.4

40Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	30
teleop	26	35
endgame	0	24
foul	0	20
total	44	109

Result

Final score

44 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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