Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

239.57 – 159.41

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

211 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 23 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 528.3 ±11.7

4646Wildcard Robotics

Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 153.14Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2508Armada

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 28.48Rank 11Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 57.95Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 508.4 ±15.1

5339Hurricanes

Provisional

Season APEX 33.7Event APEX 9.8Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 127.71Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 21.9Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4646, 2508, 2220

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.6 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4646, 2508, 2220

Auto

37.1 16%

Teleop

137.2 58%

Endgame

62.1 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5339, 3928, 167

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5339, 3928, 167

Auto

27.4 18%

Teleop

87.4 58%

Endgame

37.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score239.6pts

Blue projected score159.4pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.2
Score range: 128–271
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 353 vs event baseline 171.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

528.3Season APEX508.4

37.1Auto27.4

137.2Teleop87.4

62.1Endgame37.1

70Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	27
teleop	114	65
endgame	54	45
foul	5	5
total	211	142

Result

Final score

211 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 23 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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