Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

148.7 – 220.33

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

153 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 17.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 382.2 ±13.5

5576Team Terminator

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX -13Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6419Kernel Chaos

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 97.58Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 64.12Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 727 ±11

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 17.79Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3061Huskie Robotics

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 69.57Rank 9Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 132.97Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5576, 6419, 2220

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5576, 6419, 2220

Auto

23.0 16%

Teleop

88.9 62%

Endgame

31.8 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 167, 3061, 4143

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.3 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 167, 3061, 4143

Auto

48.3 22%

Teleop

111.9 52%

Endgame

56.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.2 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score148.7pts

Blue projected score220.3pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.6
Score range: 121–248
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 342 vs event baseline 155.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

382.2Season APEX727

23Auto48.3

88.9Teleop111.9

31.8Endgame56.5

53Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	47
teleop	55	105
endgame	54	27
foul	25	10
total	153	189

Result

Final score

153 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 17.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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