Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

183.78 – 93.18

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

243 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 54.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.4 ±13

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 112.18Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7858Warriors

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 56.93Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3206Royal T-Wrecks

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 14.67Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 239.3 ±14.5

5541Shakopee Sabers

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 18.16Rank 30Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7850Bio-Bots

Season APEX 83.8Event APEX 29.64Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9082No Limit

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 45.38Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4065, 7858, 3206

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.8 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4065, 7858, 3206

Auto

13.5 8%

Teleop

106.3 61%

Endgame

54.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5541, 7850, 9082

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5541, 7850, 9082

Auto

18.1 19%

Teleop

43.9 45%

Endgame

34.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.13 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score183.8pts

Blue projected score93.2pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.6
Score range: 65–212
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 287 vs event baseline 155.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.4Season APEX239.3

13.5Auto18.1

106.3Teleop43.9

54.4Endgame34.5

105Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	10
teleop	148	25
endgame	53	9
foul	5	0
total	243	44

Result

Final score

243 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 54.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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