Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

141.66 – 263.39

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

133 – 356

Prediction correct · off by 50.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 367.2 ±12.8

5822WolfByte

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 34.08Rank 34Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2358Bearbotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 28.89Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2530Inconceivable

Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 78.69Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 620.3 ±12.4

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 112.09Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4646Wildcard Robotics

Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 135.15Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3055Furious George

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 16.15Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5822, 2358, 2530

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5822, 2358, 2530

Auto

25.2 18%

Teleop

87.3 63%

Endgame

26.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 111, 4646, 3055

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.4 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 111, 4646, 3055

Auto

56.4 22%

Teleop

153.3 60%

Endgame

47.8 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score141.7pts

Blue projected score263.4pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -121.7
Score range: 114–291
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 489 vs event baseline 153.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

367.2Season APEX620.3

25.2Auto56.4

87.3Teleop153.3

26.3Endgame47.8

21Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	63
teleop	82	201
endgame	32	87
foul	15	5
total	133	356

Result

Final score

133 – 356

Prediction correct · off by 50.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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