Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.27 – 164.98

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

108 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.8 ±14.5

2549Millerbots

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 21.94Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2358Bearbotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 28.73Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7858Warriors

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 57.6Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 457.5 ±14.1

4646Wildcard Robotics

Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 129.71Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7850Bio-Bots

Season APEX 83.8Event APEX 26.74Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2531RoboHawks

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 8.53Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2549, 2358, 7858

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2549, 2358, 7858

Auto

10.8 11%

Teleop

63.1 62%

Endgame

27.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4646, 7850, 2531

/ 100 compat

Projected

165 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4646, 7850, 2531

Auto

24.7 15%

Teleop

101.5 60%

Endgame

43.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score108.3pts

Blue projected score165pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56.7
Score range: 81–192
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 334 vs event baseline 152.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.8Season APEX457.5

10.8Auto24.7

63.1Teleop101.5

27.5Endgame43.6

42Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	34
teleop	48	131
endgame	38	46
foul	0	15
total	108	226

Result

Final score

108 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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