Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.82 – 120.43

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

100 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 70.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 195.5 ±16

9082No Limit

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 39.95Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11246Tiger Byte

Provisional

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 38.68Rank 38Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

525Swartdogs

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 10.19Rank 39Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 420.5 ±13.5

5847Ironclad

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 115.92Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5576Team Terminator

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX -26Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

967Iron Lions

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 30.51Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9082, 11246, 525

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9082, 11246, 525

Auto

14.9 15%

Teleop

37.9 38%

Endgame

46.5 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5847, 5576, 967

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5847, 5576, 967

Auto

28.4 26%

Teleop

49.1 45%

Endgame

31.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score88.8pts

Blue projected score120.4pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.6
Score range: 62–147
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 351 vs event baseline 152.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

195.5Season APEX420.5

14.9Auto28.4

37.9Teleop49.1

46.5Endgame31.4

90Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	53
teleop	34	121
endgame	38	77
foul	0	0
total	100	251

Result

Final score

100 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 70.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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