Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

199.76 – 186.91

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

125 – 287

Prediction missed · off by 87.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 412.8 ±13.5

2290FLYT

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 27.63Rank 36Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4859The CyBears

Season APEX 87.4Event APEX 53.1Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 119.03Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 496.7 ±12.4

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 104.06Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5541Shakopee Sabers

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 12.61Rank 30Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2530Inconceivable

Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 70.24Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2290, 4859, 3928

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2290, 4859, 3928

Auto

38.7 20%

Teleop

108.8 56%

Endgame

47.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 111, 5541, 2530

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 111, 5541, 2530

Auto

42.7 24%

Teleop

115.8 64%

Endgame

21.3 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score199.8pts

Blue projected score186.9pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.8
Score range: 160–227
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 412 vs event baseline 151.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

412.8Season APEX496.7

38.7Auto42.7

108.8Teleop115.8

47.7Endgame21.3

21Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	62
teleop	63	180
endgame	4	45
foul	20	0
total	125	287

Result

Final score

125 – 287

Prediction missed · off by 87.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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