Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

101.42 – 114.45

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

87 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 11.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.2 ±17

2987Rogue Robotics

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 52.69Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5339Hurricanes

Provisional

Season APEX 33.7Event APEX 12.87Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7531Servos Strike Back

Season APEX 75.8Event APEX 35.86Rank 19Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 293.5 ±14.5

4663Cyber Tigers

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 73.95Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2977Sir LancerBots

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 27.9Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5914Robotic Warriors

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 12.6Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2987, 5339, 7531

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2987, 5339, 7531

Auto

17.3 18%

Teleop

49.4 50%

Endgame

32.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4663, 2977, 5914

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4663, 2977, 5914

Auto

18.4 17%

Teleop

51.2 47%

Endgame

39.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score101.4pts

Blue projected score114.5pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13
Score range: 74–141
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 152.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.2Season APEX293.5

17.3Auto18.4

49.4Teleop51.2

32Endgame39.4

61Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	25
teleop	42	49
endgame	12	49
foul	5	0
total	87	123

Result

Final score

87 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 11.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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