Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

113.42 – 246.81

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

124 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 504.3 ±11.6

112Plus One

Season APEX 90.2Event APEX 27.5Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 23.04Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 62.88Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 654.4 ±11.2

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 105.41Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2358Bearbotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 23.91Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 117.49Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 112, 167, 2220

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.4 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 112, 167, 2220

Auto

26.4 24%

Teleop

69.3 62%

Endgame

16.1 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 695, 2358, 4174

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.8 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 695, 2358, 4174

Auto

49.0 20%

Teleop

131.8 53%

Endgame

69.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.93 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score113.4pts

Blue projected score246.8pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -133.4
Score range: 86–274
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 426 vs event baseline 151.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

504.3Season APEX654.4

26.4Auto49

69.3Teleop131.8

16.1Endgame69.1

123Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	43
teleop	64	192
endgame	47	67
foul	5	0
total	124	302

Result

Final score

124 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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