Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.14 – 166.24

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 3.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.9 ±14.5

2508Armada

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 17.81Rank 11Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5576Team Terminator

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX -21.99Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

5822WolfByte

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 40.32Rank 34Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 338.8 ±15

6419Kernel Chaos

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 99.27Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6420Fire Island Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 8.05Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7858Warriors

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 58.92Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2508, 5576, 5822

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2508, 5576, 5822

Auto

15.7 50%

Teleop

-2.3 0%

Endgame

18.3 58%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6419, 6420, 7858

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.2 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6419, 6420, 7858

Auto

32.0 20%

Teleop

101.3 64%

Endgame

25.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.85 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score36.1pts

Blue projected score166.2pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -130.1
Score range: 9–193
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 202 vs event baseline 152.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.9Season APEX338.8

15.7Auto32

-2.3Teleop101.3

18.3Endgame25.8

75Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	18
teleop	9	106
endgame	11	46
foul	0	0
total	32	170

Result

Final score

32 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 3.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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