Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.15 – 276.32

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 421.2 ±12.2

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 10.87Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

967Iron Lions

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 31.67Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9082No Limit

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 34.61Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 662.3 ±11.7

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 121.24Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2290FLYT

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 26.86Rank 36Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4646Wildcard Robotics

Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 128.22Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3284, 967, 9082

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.2 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3284, 967, 9082

Auto

9.1 14%

Teleop

27.5 43%

Endgame

27.9 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4143, 2290, 4646

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.3 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4143, 2290, 4646

Auto

48.4 18%

Teleop

154.5 58%

Endgame

63.6 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score77.2pts

Blue projected score276.3pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -199.2
Score range: 50–303
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 393 vs event baseline 151.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

421.2Season APEX662.3

9.1Auto48.4

27.5Teleop154.5

27.9Endgame63.6

86Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	34
teleop	46	176
endgame	41	77
foul	0	5
total	101	292

Result

Final score

101 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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