Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

166.17 – 237.74

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

272 – 134

Prediction missed · off by 104.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 537.6 ±12.4

5847Ironclad

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 104.12Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3061Huskie Robotics

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 48.43Rank 9Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7850Bio-Bots

Season APEX 83.8Event APEX 13.62Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 421.3 ±13.5

2667Knights of the Valley

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 32.02Rank 33Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2987Rogue Robotics

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 72.3Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 133.42Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5847, 3061, 7850

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5847, 3061, 7850

Auto

40.7 24%

Teleop

76.8 45%

Endgame

52.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2667, 2987, 3928

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.7 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2667, 2987, 3928

Auto

42.8 18%

Teleop

123.1 52%

Endgame

71.1 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.24 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score166.2pts

Blue projected score237.7pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.6
Score range: 139–265
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 406 vs event baseline 149.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

537.6Season APEX421.3

40.7Auto42.8

76.8Teleop123.1

52.1Endgame71.1

73Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	15
teleop	118	91
endgame	68	23
foul	10	5
total	272	134

Result

Final score

272 – 134

Prediction missed · off by 104.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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