Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

76.77 – 60.44

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 95

Prediction missed · off by 22.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 195.9 ±17

525Swartdogs

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 12.05Rank 39Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5914Robotic Warriors

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 22.73Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3090Chaotic Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 41.99Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.4 ±15.6

7531Servos Strike Back

Season APEX 75.8Event APEX 33.13Rank 19Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3055Furious George

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 16.53Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

5541Shakopee Sabers

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 10.78Rank 30Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 525, 5914, 3090

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 525, 5914, 3090

Auto

17.9 24%

Teleop

31.6 42%

Endgame

25.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7531, 3055, 5541

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7531, 3055, 5541

Auto

14.9 23%

Teleop

26.2 41%

Endgame

23.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score76.8pts

Blue projected score60.4pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.3
Score range: 33–104
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 162 vs event baseline 151.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

195.9Season APEX236.4

17.9Auto14.9

31.6Teleop26.2

25.5Endgame23.2

36Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	18
teleop	27	46
endgame	20	26
foul	5	5
total	67	95

Result

Final score

67 – 95

Prediction missed · off by 22.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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