Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

145.91 – 183.19

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

195 – 312

Prediction correct · off by 89 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 369.5 ±15.8

11246Tiger Byte

Provisional

Season APEX 41.4Event APEX 30.05Rank 38Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2531RoboHawks

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 8.24Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 107.62Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 430.8 ±13.5

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 88.87Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4663Cyber Tigers

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 51.86Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4859The CyBears

Season APEX 87.4Event APEX 42.46Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11246, 2531, 4065

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11246, 2531, 4065

Auto

17.5 12%

Teleop

74.1 52%

Endgame

51.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 111, 4663, 4859

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 111, 4663, 4859

Auto

55.3 31%

Teleop

90.9 51%

Endgame

31.3 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score145.9pts

Blue projected score183.2pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.3
Score range: 119–210
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 507 vs event baseline 149.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

369.5Season APEX430.8

17.5Auto55.3

74.1Teleop90.9

51.4Endgame31.3

140Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	71
teleop	119	191
endgame	62	50
foul	5	0
total	195	312

Result

Final score

195 – 312

Prediction correct · off by 89 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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