Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

189.55 – 82.04

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

218 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 501 ±11.7

3206Royal T-Wrecks

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 4.23Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2530Inconceivable

Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 71.01Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 114.31Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.9 ±16.5

2977Sir LancerBots

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 34.28Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2549Millerbots

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 30.22Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5339Hurricanes

Provisional

Season APEX 33.7Event APEX 17.54Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3206, 2530, 4174

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.6 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3206, 2530, 4174

Auto

26.3 14%

Teleop

120.4 63%

Endgame

43.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2977, 2549, 5339

/ 100 compat

Projected

82 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2977, 2549, 5339

Auto

6.2 8%

Teleop

39.4 51%

Endgame

32.0 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score189.6pts

Blue projected score82pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 107.5
Score range: 55–217
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 268 vs event baseline 149.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

501Season APEX261.9

26.3Auto6.2

120.4Teleop39.4

43.5Endgame32

99Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	2
teleop	150	23
endgame	38	20
foul	0	5
total	218	50

Result

Final score

218 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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