Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

247.52 – 60.52

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

307 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 45 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 476.7 ±12.8

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 126.48Rank 5Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6419Kernel Chaos

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 87.3Rank 17Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5822WolfByte

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 33.74Rank 34Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380.9 ±12.9

2667Knights of the Valley

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 21.05Rank 33Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

112Plus One

Season APEX 90.2Event APEX 25.03Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 14.44Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3928, 6419, 5822

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.5 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3928, 6419, 5822

Auto

53.3 23%

Teleop

130.8 56%

Endgame

50.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2667, 112, 3284

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.5 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2667, 112, 3284

Auto

13.8 26%

Teleop

19.1 36%

Endgame

19.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score247.5pts

Blue projected score60.5pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 187
Score range: 34–275
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 398 vs event baseline 148.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

476.7Season APEX380.9

53.3Auto13.8

130.8Teleop19.1

50.1Endgame19.9

40Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	20
teleop	178	48
endgame	89	23
foul	0	0
total	307	91

Result

Final score

307 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 45 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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