Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

161.3 – 127.81

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

141 – 169

Prediction missed · off by 30.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 447 ±14.1

5541Shakopee Sabers

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 12.1Rank 30Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4646Wildcard Robotics

Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 142.77Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6420Fire Island Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 6.43Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368.4 ±13.5

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 54.05Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2987Rogue Robotics

Season APEX 117.7Event APEX 68.88Rank 22Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7850Bio-Bots

Season APEX 83.8Event APEX 4.88Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5541, 4646, 6420

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5541, 4646, 6420

Auto

35.3 21%

Teleop

113.9 68%

Endgame

17.2 10%

Strengths

· 4646 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2220, 2987, 7850

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2220, 2987, 7850

Auto

25.2 20%

Teleop

74.4 58%

Endgame

29.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score161.3pts

Blue projected score127.8pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.5
Score range: 101–188
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 310 vs event baseline 148.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

447Season APEX368.4

35.3Auto25.2

113.9Teleop74.4

17.2Endgame29.4

61Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	23
teleop	88	103
endgame	14	38
foul	0	5
total	141	169

Result

Final score

141 – 169

Prediction missed · off by 30.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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