Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

192.23 – 50.5

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

145 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 24.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 453.5 ±13.5

2977Sir LancerBots

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 23.81Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5847Ironclad

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 127.78Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4859The CyBears

Season APEX 87.4Event APEX 40.64Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368.1 ±13.5

525Swartdogs

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 15.41Rank 39Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 8.19Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7850Bio-Bots

Season APEX 83.8Event APEX 26.9Rank 21Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2977, 5847, 4859

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.2 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2977, 5847, 4859

Auto

42.1 22%

Teleop

91.4 49%

Endgame

54.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 525, 3284, 7850

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 525, 3284, 7850

Auto

16.0 34%

Teleop

18.6 40%

Endgame

12.1 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.32 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score192.2pts

Blue projected score50.5pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 141.7
Score range: 20–223
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 193 vs event baseline 171.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

453.5Season APEX368.1

42.1Auto16

91.4Teleop18.6

54.1Endgame12.1

79Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	12
teleop	53	26
endgame	64	10
foul	5	0
total	145	48

Result

Final score

145 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 24.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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