Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

100.43 – 137.38

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

145 – 140

Prediction missed · off by 23.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 382.1 ±14.1

3061Huskie Robotics

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 53.33Rank 9Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4859The CyBears

Season APEX 87.4Event APEX 35.92Rank 13Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3055Furious George

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 11.18Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.1 ±14.5

7858Warriors

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 63.24Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

2508Armada

Season APEX 71.6Event APEX 21.29Rank 11Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4663Cyber Tigers

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 52.85Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3061, 4859, 3055

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3061, 4859, 3055

Auto

31.5 30%

Teleop

52.5 51%

Endgame

19.6 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7858, 2508, 4663

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7858, 2508, 4663

Auto

28.5 22%

Teleop

58.1 44%

Endgame

44.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score100.4pts

Blue projected score137.4pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.9
Score range: 73–164
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 285 vs event baseline 148.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

382.1Season APEX261.1

31.5Auto28.5

52.5Teleop58.1

19.6Endgame44.7

19Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	34
teleop	55	56
endgame	36	50
foul	0	0
total	145	140

Result

Final score

145 – 140

Prediction missed · off by 23.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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