Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

188.86 – 141.18

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

175 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 11.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 476.9 ±15.3

3090Chaotic Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 48.99Rank 28Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

967Iron Lions

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 37.83Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 102.04Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.6 ±15.3

525Swartdogs

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 17.67Rank 39Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 104.83Rank 18Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5339Hurricanes

Provisional

Season APEX 33.7Event APEX 18.68Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3090, 967, 695

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3090, 967, 695

Auto

35.9 20%

Teleop

91.9 52%

Endgame

50.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 525, 4065, 5339

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 525, 4065, 5339

Auto

14.6 11%

Teleop

67.9 51%

Endgame

49.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score188.9pts

Blue projected score141.2pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.7
Score range: 114–216
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 325 vs event baseline 147.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

476.9Season APEX347.6

35.9Auto14.6

91.9Teleop67.9

50.6Endgame49.8

10Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	27
teleop	108	77
endgame	42	46
foul	0	0
total	175	150

Result

Final score

175 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 11.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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